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Is a New All-Time High Next for Nvidia Stock After Yet Another Earnings Beat?![]() Nvidia (NVDA) released its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings yesterday, and it was yet another beat from the Jensen Huang-led company. When it comes to Nvidia, the discussion is usually not about whether the company will beat consensus estimates, but by what margin. Nvidia reported revenue of $44.06 billion in the quarter, which was up 69% year-over-year and ahead of the $43.31 billion that analysts expected. The number was also higher than the upper end of the company’s guidance. While the margin of the beat is not particularly extraordinary, considering what the company has presented to investors over the last two years, it is nonetheless noteworthy, as it came amid China headwinds. For context, President Donald Trump’s administration imposed export control restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 chips during the quarter, which impacted its sales and prompted the company to book a charge of $4.5 billion in the quarter. ![]() Nvidia’s Q2 Guidance Trails EstimatesNvidia said that if not for these restrictions, it would have been able to ship an additional $2.5 billion in revenue from these chips. The company expects the hit to be a mammoth $8 billion in the current quarter. Despite the headwind, it forecast revenues of $45 billion at midpoint for the current quarter, which is 50% higher than what the company reported in the corresponding quarter last year. Nvidia’s guidance fell short of the $45.9 billion that analysts were expecting, but it should be seen in the context of the loss of China business. If not for the export control restrictions, Nvidia would have guided for year-over-year revenue growth of over 76% for the current quarter, which is actually much higher than what the markets were modelling before the export control restrictions. Export Restrictions Put Nvidia at a Disadvantage in ChinaMeanwhile, Huang was quite measured in his criticism of Trump’s export control restrictions. Huang, who previously said that the chip export restrictions were a “failure,” warned, “Shielding Chinese chip makers from U.S. competition only strengthens them abroad and weakens America’s position. Export restrictions have spurred China's innovation and scale.” While he rued the fact that Nvidia has been effectively shut out of the $50 billion artificial intelligence (AI) chip market in China, he praised Trump’s “bold vision to reshore advanced manufacturing, create jobs and strengthen national security.” He also lauded Trump’s removal of Biden-era “AI Diffusion Rules,” which put limits on chip exports. Referring to the AI deals during Trump’s recent visit to the Middle East, where he was among the business leaders who accompanied the president, Huang said, “The deals he announced are wins for America, creating jobs, advancing infrastructure, generating tax revenue, and reducing the U.S. trade deficit.” Nvidia’s Non-China Business Is Doing Quite WellWhile China was the focal point of Nvidia’s fiscal Q1 earnings call and the words “China” and “Chinese” were mentioned 29 times, for me, the key takeaway from the call was that the company’s non-China business is doing incredibly well. The recent earnings calls of other Big Tech companies, which include the so-called hyperscalers, showed that companies are not slowing down their AI capex. If anything, Meta Platforms (META) raised its capex budget while Microsoft (MSFT) stressed that not much should be read into its canceling of some data center leases. What’s Next for Nvidia Stock After EarningsWhile Nvidia’s China business remains challenged, strong growth in other markets helped Nvidia offset the revenue loss in the world’s second-largest economy. There is strong growth in other international markets, and Huang, who will be in Europe next week, sees sovereign AI as a key growth driver and has plans to meet several “heads of state.” Overall, Nvidia’s earnings report was stellar and is yet another testament to the fact that we are still in the early days of the AI cycle. While so far, U.S. tech giants have helped spur the demand for Nvidia’s chips, going forward, demand from global companies as well as governments could help drive demand. While NVDA stock is up just about 5% so far today, I expect the chip-designing giant to push toward its all-time highs sooner rather than later. On the date of publication, Mohit Oberoi had a position in: NVDA , META , MSFT . All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. |
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