Weekly European Commodity Winners

UK Natural Gas (NFM25), +3.95%

Warmer weather predictions in the U.S. led to increased demand expectations for natural gas, contributing to price gains las week. We can see the impact on European prices, too.

Moreover, the United Kingdom faces a substantial decline in its domestic gas production. Without new investments, production is projected to fall by 75% by 2030, according to Offshore Energies UK. Given the declining domestic output, the UK is increasingly relying on imports. 

Having said that, Norway, Europe's primary gas supplier since 2022, will keep high delivery levels through 2025 in the UK. 

The UK’s gas storage capacity also remains a point of concern. Centrica reported a 50% drop in gas inventories since November 2024.

The chart shows low volatility with a weak upward trend. The key 90 level must be broken to give hope for a solid uptrend to long traders. Current price is locked between the 20 and 50 EMAs showing a state of indecision on trend.

It is likely that in the absence of fresh news prices will look at 80 as support and around 90 as resistance.

Corn (XBQ25), +2.52%

The European Union’s corn production is projected to increase in 2025. COCERAL forecasts EU-27+UK corn output at 63.3 million tonnes, up from 58.9 million tonnes in 2024.

There are already higher yields in the Balkans but reduced plantings in France and Germany. Overall, the European corn market in 2025 is anticipated to be robust, with increased production.

As a result, European corn has been on a bearish path since February until a “turning point” emerged pattern on May 13.

Prices remain under the 50 EMA (207.54) which has been a tough resistance since the start of the mentioned decline. Four attempts to break it upwards have failed so far.

Traders should pay attention if prices reach the 191-191.5 level as this has proven a good entry point for long positions in the past.

Copper Grade A 3M (Cash) (P0Y00), +1.72%

Last week, LME Copper Grade A 3M (Cash) prices (P0Y00) experienced a modest increase, influenced by shifts in inventory levels and market sentiment.

Prices fluctuated within a narrow range, reflecting cautious market optimism

LME copper warehouse stocks decreased from 179,375 tons on May 16 to 164,725 tons on May 23. The decline in stocks suggests tightening supply, which can support higher prices.

As of May 9, managed money net positions stood at 32,385 contracts, indicating a bullish stance among investors.

The increase in net long positions reflects growing confidence in copper's price prospects. Analysts anticipate continued price support due to declining inventories and sustained demand, 
with prices potentially testing the $9,700–$9,800 range.

Goldman Sachs projects LME copper prices to reach $9,600 in the next three months and $10,000 in six months.

The chart is ranging between 9,400-9,600 since May 6 with very close EMAs (10, 20, 50). 

The market needs more positive news from China and general world trade to make this appealing for more long positions.

Weekly European Commodity Losers

Cocoa #7 (CAN25), -14%

The latest weather reports from West Africa are favorable for crops in Ghana and Cote d´Ivoire.

The markets seems to finally be recovering from the shocking shortage of the last months. ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports increased to an 8-month high of over 2.17 million bags, 
up from a 21-year low of 1.26 million bags in January.

The chart has broken down the 10, 20 and 50 EMAs in a sharp reversal that seems now headed to test the key 6,000 level. The RSI at 46 is in neutral territory. Watch out for levels below 30 as it has proven very reliable for long entries. The trend for now remains bearish.

Robusta Coffee 10-T (RMN25), -1.54%

Last week, the Robusta Coffee July 2025 futures contract (RMN25) experienced a modest decline, closing at $4,790 per metric ton on May 23. Brazil’s robusta production is forecast to increase by 17% due to favorable weather conditions, while Vietnam’s output remains stable.

According to Reuters, recent  U.S. tariffs on coffee imports from Vietnam and Indonesia have the potential to shift trade flows and disrupt supply chains. This could lead to short-term price increases and higher volatility.

The trend remains solidly bearish with prices trending lower than the 10, 20 and 50 EMAs.

Short traders have the advantage for now. However, the candle pattern from May 23 could develop into a bullish hammer (like April 9), so the downtrend could be ending.