Founded in 1948, NVR, Inc. (NVR), based in Reston, Virginia, builds dreams across America. With a market cap of $20.7 billion, it crafts homes under Ryan, NVHomes, and Heartland brands, catering from first-time buyers to luxury seekers. Beyond construction, NVR streamlines the path to ownership through mortgage banking, title services, and loan sales. Operating in 15 states and D.C., NVR blends brick, vision, and finance into a single blueprint for modern homeownership.

Despite its storied legacy and deep roots in U.S. homebuilding, NVR stock's performance has hit a rough patch. Over the past 52 weeks, shares slipped 4.4%, and in 2025 alone, they have dropped 13.6%, a sharp contrast from the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 10.2% surge over the same year and its more modest 1.3% YTD decline.

Narrowing the focus, NVR's slide over the past year is slightly better than the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF's (ITB) 13.4% dip. It still trails ITB’s 13.2% YTD decline.

NVR might be a beast in homebuilding, but even juggernauts feel the sting when the market freezes. In 2025, rising mortgage rates and soaring home prices have stalled housing demand, leaving would-be buyers stuck on the sidelines. As a result, home sale volumes are sliding, and even elite builders like NVR are leaning on incentives to move inventory.

Its Q1 earnings report, dropped on April 22, laid it bare. As of March 31, 2025, NVR's Q1 backlog of sold-but-unsettled homes dropped 9% annually to 10,165 units and slid 7% on a dollar basis to $4.84 billion. Net new orders in Q1 sank 12% to 5,345 units, and the cancellation rate ticked up to 16%, up from 13% a year ago. That’s more than a slowdown; it is a squeeze. Plus, its homebuilding revenue dipped 2.8% annually to $2.35 billion, just meeting estimates, but EPS tumbled 18.5% to $94.83, missing the mark by 12.1%.

Despite its sharp, land-light model and fortress balance sheet having $2.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents, NVR’s stock has fallen 29.1% from its 52-week peak, lagging the broader market and its peers. Investors are just hesitant in a rate-strangled housing economy.

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect NVR’s earnings to decline 19.4% year over year to $408.26 per share. Meanwhile, the company has a mixed earnings surprise history. While it surpassed the Street’s bottom-line estimates once over the past four quarters, it missed the expectations on three other occasions.

Among the seven analysts covering the NVR stock, the consensus rating is a “Hold.” That’s based on one “Strong Buy,” five “Hold,” and one “Strong Sell” rating.

This configuration has been consistent over the past three months.

Last month, UBS (UBS) analyst John Lovallo reiterated a “Neutral” rating on NVR stock, while lowering the price target from $8,900 to $7,900.

NVR’s mean price target of $8,325 represents a 17.8% premium to current price levels, while its street-high target of $9,300 indicates a 31.6% upside potential.