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June Lean Hogs opened lower and up-ticked to the high at 100.225. The high was just above resistance at 100.075 and it fell to the low at 98.775. It consolidated the rest of the session, and it settled at 99.25. The breakdown took price to support at the 13-DMA now at 98.725. The 13-DMA is just above the key level at 98.4775 and the confluence of support held price in check. June Hogs remain in a trading range with the high at 101.975 and the low at 96.675. The June contract is just about at the end of its rope as the lead contract as the volume in the July contract is overtaking the June volume. This will likely put more pressure on June as it becomes tied to the index. The index is well below the futures (see below) and has climbed recently as demand for pork has improved and hog supply tightens for the season. This should help cutouts as slaughter is softening, and weights have declined. There is hope that the Chinese will come back into the hog market and buy pork from the US as the Dollar has declined and it would be a sign of good faith as trade negotiations advance over the next three months. This is the amount of time the tariffs are on hold, and something needs to develop, or the tariffs will come back. Pork could be a major part of the negotiations as there are still high tariffs on pork which will need to come down in order to move product. We’ll see!... If Hogs can hold settlement, it could re-test resistance at 100.075. Resistance then comes in at 101.975. A failure from support at 98.475 could see price test support at 97.10. Support then comes in at 95.30.

The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 97.97 as of 05/16/2025. 

The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 91.26 as of 05/15/2025.

Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 480,000, which is above last week’s 466,000 and last year’s 479,099. 

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

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